As more observers look for signs that indicate the number of units sold, it seems that a few of us have been watching the sequential numbers that are generated for orders on the apple.com site. 

This morning we placed 2 orders ourselves about 2 hours apart.  The difference between those numbers is a little over 40,000.  Of course we can’t assume that every online order is for the iPad, but I would bet that the vast majority of those are.

Fortune has also reported on an organized effort that seems to be showing orders in excess of 50,000 each 2 hours, roughly the same thing we found with our calculation.

Since Apple has placed a 2 order limit per customer, and that is not unlikely that some users bought more than 1 unit, it seems pretty plausable that today could bring over 200,000 units sold in their first day (assuming that demand keeps up and they don’t run out of iPads)!

Once the iPad is released and the hype dies down, we’ll likely get the next generation of iPhone in June or July to keep us excited.  In the interest of my own amusement, here are some ideas / predictions regarding the iPad and the activities surrounding it until the next version is released (our guess? within the first 12 months of the inital release).

1.  It will be jail broken within the first 3 days of its release.  There are some really good hackers out there, and I wouldn’t be surprised if, in the short term, iPads would be available to work on T-Mobile too.  In the slightly longer term, apps that only work in jail broken iPhones, will also work on the iPad.

2.  It will become the must-have device for people in education and the arts, along with legal, medical, and just about every other industry that has mobile professionals.  I know, obvious right?  But I’m beting this happens in the first 12 months of its release.  Would you want to carry around textbooks with that musty smell?  Or all of your meeting notes and research on a heavy laptop instead of a sub $500 elegant device that gets unlimited Internet access for $30 / month?

3.  It will only slow down the inevitable destruction of the publishing industry rather than save it.  Despite the success of music sales within iTunes for the iPod, the industry still sells in terms of dollars only a fraction of what it used to.  With so much free content available online, I don’t see how anybody trying to sell a form of text for money will actually survive.

4.  The next iteration of the iPad will have a front-facing camera.  The second generation needs a catch to pull in those that purchased the first generation.  That will likely be it.  Of course, that isn’t going to stop us from getting our 1st gen iPads when they are released!

What do you think is going to happen?  Think it will be a game changer?

With all the publicity about how the iPad is going to revolutionize various industries, everybody seems to forget about the industry that is currently practically supporting the iPod Touch (the current mini-version of the iPad minus the iWork and 3G capabilities): the gaming industry.  A hefty chunk of the top-selling apps in the App Store are games.

Could the iPad also be a competitor to portable gaming systems like the PSP or the Nintendo DS?  It does have a bigger screen with a better resolution, but it’s larger size is a bit of a hindrance when it comes to carrying the thing around.  I don’t see kids taking their iPads out of their backpack to play another round of Warcraft.

On the other hand, if lots of games changed their interfaces to make use of the larger screen (ie. head to head, board games, etc), then the iPad might bring something special to gaming, the ability for people to ‘share’ the gaming experience while in the same room.  I think a lot of that has been lost since most video games currently are really solo acts.  The iPad’s larger screen definitely makes sharing the experience much more likely.

With some tweaking, all the current games in the App Store can run on the iPad.  But does having a larger form factor make the game any better than its smaller cousin the iTouch / iPhone?  I don’t think so.  Do you?

And then there is the price.  For $200 (iTouch, PSP, DS) you might be able to afford having a gaming system in your pocket.  For $500?  That price is a little high if you plan on using the iPad for just games.

I think the iPad will finally let the non-game apps take their place in the top spots.  I imagine that most people buying the iPad will do so for the other genres of apps outside of games.  Productivity, Educational, Medical, eBooks, and all those other non-gaming categories will most likely be the biggest hits for iPad users.

Perhaps now, a few more non-games will make the top 100 list.  What do you think?

One of the big announcements we’ve heard is the first look at Windows Phone 7. It is supposedly the next major "iPhone killer" (what with Google and Palm pretty much backing away from the title).  

Of all the companies that have released a smartphone, Microsoft holds the best chance of reaching anything close to the sales of the iPhone. Keep in mind that while AT&T is a "premier partner" (whatever that means) for Window 7 phones, it is not the exclusive carrier of their smartphone. That status will however likely provide AT&T with some sort of specialized software or maybe a special mobile plan?

However, to compete with the iPhone, Microsoft should not target the iPhone.  Instead, the company should target the Blackberry.

For years, the business appeal of Blackberry was its ability to interface with various types of mail servers (including Microsoft Exchange) and deliver e-mails in a reliable and simply way to the user. If Microsoft developed a special type of Microsoft Outlook for Mobile (along with Word, Excel and Powerpoint) and market those toward businesses, it could be  a player in the business market.  After all, Microsoft concentrates on the business market with their desktops, doesn’t it only make sense they would do the same thing with their portable OS? 

The iPhone has too much of a buzz appeal for Microsoft to tackle the consumer market. Also, Microsoft seems a shadow of its former self without a figure like Bill Gates in the picture. Apple remains dominant by having a powerful central voice in Steve Jobs.

There is the question of the sheer number of apps available on iTunes. By having an open system with more applications available, Microsoft won the operating system wars. If Microsoft wants to win this one, it should release a toned-down, free version of Visual Studio for mobile developers as well as a central marketplace to overcome Apple’s advantage in that department.

By targeting businesses, Microsoft could build a base with which to compete with the iPhone. If it goes directly against the iPhone, then Microsoft will be lying alongside Google and Palm as just another second tier mobile solution.